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sharpneli #121 Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:39 AM

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View PostAnuSuaraj, on 04 September 2013 - 09:58 AM, said:

Just few days back I had a battle in which at the very start an XVM dweeb exclaimed: "32% chance to win :(".
And we won that battle, so the thing is not even accurate. How could it be?
It has horrible calibration but nonetheless your claim is totally wrong. It's like "This coin has 50% chance of getting tails and we got tails, that's 100% tails!" 32% chance to win still means only "In 100 battles with this chance you can expect to win around 32". NOT "Whenever the chance is less than 50% you will always lose!". If you'd never ever win 32% win chance battles then it would not be accurate.
Too many idiots in the game take it as a sign of certain loss and then they quit. Because they cannot read it correctly.

Edited by sharpneli, 04 September 2013 - 10:51 AM.


ZWC #122 Posted 04 September 2013 - 11:18 AM

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View Postw0rxz, on 03 September 2013 - 11:00 AM, said:

View PostZWC, on 02 September 2013 - 09:15 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 02 September 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

Both my WR and kill ratios are weaker when I'm in a flight than when I'm playing solo....weird.  :amazed:
It's prolly jeff_killstealerz and ___________Grim__________ the Reaper of friendly planes cramping my style.  :glasses:
Your WR is weaker while in flight with Jeff-peters and Grim as if you play on your own!
No way josé... you are not telling the truth here!
That would imply those 2 are downgrading your score!
So basicly you say that you are so superb, that you win more games with 14 nobodies.
but you're such a poor teamplayer that in flights your team looses more often????
.
Well I don't know about Jeff the big arty-fan in WoT, but I do know Grimm is good.
ftr. I did play once in the same team while the 3 of you were in flight.... we won that battle!

View PostZWC, on 02 September 2013 - 09:15 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 02 September 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

Both my WR and kill ratios are weaker when I'm in a flight than when I'm playing solo....weird.  :amazed:
It's prolly jeff_killstealerz and ___________Grim__________ the Reaper of friendly planes cramping my style.  :glasses:
Your WR is weaker while in flight with Jeff-peters and Grim as if you play on your own!
No way josé... you are not telling the truth here!
That would imply those 2 are downgrading your score!
So basicly you say that you are so superb, that you win more games with 14 nobodies.
but you're such a poor teamplayer that in flights your team looses more often????
.
Well I don't know about Jeff the big arty-fan in WoT, but I do know Grimm is good.
ftr. I did play once in the same team while the 3 of you were in flight.... we won that battle!
Anuj is right, it quite often happens that when you are flying alone, you get better results as when you are in a flight.
I do think however, that this phenomenon manifests itself more often with experienced pilots than with newbies.
The obvious factor; the experienced pilots will have to share the amount of available kills. The non-experienced pilots are not good enough to get more than 10 kills together anyway...
You clearly overlooked or mis read something.
I know results all go down if you have to "share" damage and kills!
But WinRatio cannot go down by having flight with experienced players...
Take AnuS for example in flight with Grim and Jeff.
All 3 of them tend to kill lot per game. let say 3 at the leased.
But more importantly, they stay alive most of battles.
Now, if you are single in battle you can loose though you still alive... but being very good the outcome mostly otherwise.
But in battle 3 or 2 very good players survive but still loose the game is not likely and will be a rare occasion.
.
So sorry but WR cannot shrink in his case.

Edited by ZWC, 04 September 2013 - 11:19 AM.


ZWC #123 Posted 04 September 2013 - 11:26 AM

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View Postsharpneli, on 04 September 2013 - 10:39 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 04 September 2013 - 09:58 AM, said:

Just few days back I had a battle in which at the very start an XVM dweeb exclaimed: "32% chance to win :(".
And we won that battle, so the thing is not even accurate. How could it be?
It has horrible calibration but nonetheless your claim is totally wrong. It's like "This coin has 50% chance of getting tails and we got tails, that's 100% tails!" 32% chance to win still means only "In 100 battles with this chance you can expect to win around 32". NOT "Whenever the chance is less than 50% you will always lose!". If you'd never ever win 32% win chance battles then it would not be accurate.
Too many idiots in the game take it as a sign of certain loss and then they quit. Because they cannot read it correctly.
you're totally right about this.
And if those brainless players stop for they think it's a lost game anyway they even increase that chance of loosing... after battle (the battle they didn't follow) they just read "defeat", and they think they made the right choice. And sadly continues to have faith in the way they think XVM works.

Edited by ZWC, 04 September 2013 - 11:28 AM.


MXDoener #124 Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:11 PM

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View PostZWC, on 04 September 2013 - 11:18 AM, said:

View Postw0rxz, on 03 September 2013 - 11:00 AM, said:

View PostZWC, on 02 September 2013 - 09:15 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 02 September 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

Both my WR and kill ratios are weaker when I'm in a flight than when I'm playing solo....weird.  :amazed:
It's prolly jeff_killstealerz and ___________Grim__________ the Reaper of friendly planes cramping my style.  :glasses:
Your WR is weaker while in flight with Jeff-peters and Grim as if you play on your own!
No way josé... you are not telling the truth here!
That would imply those 2 are downgrading your score!
So basicly you say that you are so superb, that you win more games with 14 nobodies.
but you're such a poor teamplayer that in flights your team looses more often????
.
Well I don't know about Jeff the big arty-fan in WoT, but I do know Grimm is good.
ftr. I did play once in the same team while the 3 of you were in flight.... we won that battle!

View PostZWC, on 02 September 2013 - 09:15 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 02 September 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

Both my WR and kill ratios are weaker when I'm in a flight than when I'm playing solo....weird.  :amazed:
It's prolly jeff_killstealerz and ___________Grim__________ the Reaper of friendly planes cramping my style.  :glasses:
Your WR is weaker while in flight with Jeff-peters and Grim as if you play on your own!
No way josé... you are not telling the truth here!
That would imply those 2 are downgrading your score!
So basicly you say that you are so superb, that you win more games with 14 nobodies.
but you're such a poor teamplayer that in flights your team looses more often????
.
Well I don't know about Jeff the big arty-fan in WoT, but I do know Grimm is good.
ftr. I did play once in the same team while the 3 of you were in flight.... we won that battle!
Anuj is right, it quite often happens that when you are flying alone, you get better results as when you are in a flight.
I do think however, that this phenomenon manifests itself more often with experienced pilots than with newbies.
The obvious factor; the experienced pilots will have to share the amount of available kills. The non-experienced pilots are not good enough to get more than 10 kills together anyway...
You clearly overlooked or mis read something.
I know results all go down if you have to "share" damage and kills!
But WinRatio cannot go down by having flight with experienced players...
Take AnuS for example in flight with Grim and Jeff.
All 3 of them tend to kill lot per game. let say 3 at the leased.
But more importantly, they stay alive most of battles.
Now, if you are single in battle you can loose though you still alive... but being very good the outcome mostly otherwise.
But in battle 3 or 2 very good players survive but still loose the game is not likely and will be a rare occasion.
.
So sorry but WR cannot shrink in his case.

Grim won´t stay alive though... either he is hugging the ground again or he mates with a friendly plane, most likely the ones he is in a flight with!  :teethhappy:  :teethhappy:

WG...fixing stuff that isn´t broken since 2011! :trollface:


TRNogger #125 Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:39 PM

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It comes down to the fact that statistics are no predictions. A statistic will never tell you what happens in the next event, so saying "we will win/loose this battle" because of some statistics will never work. You could say, if we played multiple battles with the same configuration as all others, then we would get a win or loss in so and so many matches.
That being said, the good thing about counting Win/Loss instead of individual performances like XP, Kills, survival: A tactically spound sacrifice may help you more than a maverick staying out of battle to rise his survival. A good supporting player setting up 10 enemies for a kill is better than a player spending all the battle to get "his" 2 or 3 kills. Even if you get no XP and constantly die before getting a kill, perhaps you are the bait that lurs the opposition into a deadly trap. This is nowhere rewarded except in the Win/Loss ratio, because clever tactical play helps you win, but not necessarily anything else.
E.g., in WoT (and no, I'm not good, there, despite playing for 15 or 16 months now), I prefer playing brawlers and go into the middle of the enemy. Of cause i have low survival scores and don't do much damage, but if 4 tanks turn and start to crossfire on me, hitting and blocking each other while my team flanks them, i still help my team significantly in winning (well, i would if it weren't for campers who don't seize a perfect oportunity).
BUT. As long as I sticked to planes < Tier VII, i had a WR of more than 60%. then I started flying BnZs and had to really get used to it. I lost so many battles in the high-Tier planes I was grinding (and which i were not good at), that my stats dropped to a WR of slightly more than 50%, other stats dropped as well. So if you meet me in battle, you might probably be misguided by my average 50% WR. If you meet me in my Me262, chances are good you will kill me before i know what is even going on. But if you meet me in my BF110...

Edited by TRNogger, 04 September 2013 - 12:40 PM.


zimmah87 #126 Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM

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View Postsharpneli, on 04 September 2013 - 10:39 AM, said:

View PostAnuSuaraj, on 04 September 2013 - 09:58 AM, said:

Just few days back I had a battle in which at the very start an XVM dweeb exclaimed: "32% chance to win :(".
And we won that battle, so the thing is not even accurate. How could it be?
It has horrible calibration but nonetheless your claim is totally wrong. It's like "This coin has 50% chance of getting tails and we got tails, that's 100% tails!" 32% chance to win still means only "In 100 battles with this chance you can expect to win around 32". NOT "Whenever the chance is less than 50% you will always lose!". If you'd never ever win 32% win chance battles then it would not be accurate.
Too many idiots in the game take it as a sign of certain loss and then they quit. Because they cannot read it correctly.

indeed, many people fail to understand probability.

however, calculating win-chance adds little to the game, and when people see their win chance is much under 50% their motivation will drop, making them perform worse (or even quit). because of lack of motivation.

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.
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TRNogger #127 Posted 04 September 2013 - 01:03 PM

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View Postzimmah87, on 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.

Becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy too fast, esspecially concerning your teammates. "Don't help XYZ, he has low stats". Guess how he will perform in this battle?

AnuSuaraj #128 Posted 04 September 2013 - 01:10 PM

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View PostTRNogger, on 04 September 2013 - 01:03 PM, said:

View Postzimmah87, on 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.
Becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy too fast, esspecially concerning your teammates. "Don't help XYZ, he has low stats". Guess how he will perform in this battle?
Exactly. XVM is a perfect grade A example of a self fulfilling prophecy...

View Postsharpneli, on 04 September 2013 - 10:39 AM, said:

It has horrible calibration but nonetheless your claim is totally wrong. It's like "This coin has 50% chance of getting tails and we got tails, that's 100% tails!" 32% chance to win still means only "In 100 battles with this chance you can expect to win around 32". NOT "Whenever the chance is less than 50% you will always lose!". If you'd never ever win 32% win chance battles then it would not be accurate.
Too many idiots in the game take it as a sign of certain loss and then they quit. Because they cannot read it correctly.
Yes sharpneli, I am perfectly aware that XVM only gives you mathematical odds...now explain that to the dweebs that are actually using XVM, dorks that suicide because their win chance is 15% or 30%...

Edited by AnuSuaraj, 04 September 2013 - 01:13 PM.

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_Grim_ #129 Posted 04 September 2013 - 03:55 PM

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View PostAnuSuaraj, on 04 September 2013 - 01:10 PM, said:

...now explain that to the dweebs that are actually using XVM, dorks that suicide because their win chance is 15% or 30%...

People like that should be put up against  a wall and shot for cowardice :sceptic: .

A lot of people seem to forget that statitistics are just that...statistics,not facts.They give you a fairly acurate estimation of probabibility,but nothing else.As an example,if you have 2 teams fighting and one has 30% chance to win,this does not mean that if you play 100 battles in the same configuration,with the player skill level remaining the same,that they will exactly 30 battles.No...it will just be the most probable that they will win 30 battles,but 100 is a really small statistical pool so there is a huge chance  that they'll win less or more.However,if you play 1 million battles in the same configuration,with the players' skill remaining exactly the same,it will drift closer and closer to 30%.
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w0rxz #130 Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:36 PM

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@ZWC, no you're right, WR increases, or at least it usually does in my case ;)
I was thinking more of individual results like KDR, Dmg dealt etc. Thanks for pointing that out.

zimmah87 #131 Posted 05 September 2013 - 09:57 AM

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View PostTRNogger, on 04 September 2013 - 01:03 PM, said:

View Postzimmah87, on 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.

Becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy too fast, esspecially concerning your teammates. "Don't help XYZ, he has low stats". Guess how he will perform in this battle?

it may be a self-fulfilling profecy. But even than, I'd rather try to kill the one enemy with a 70% winrate and an average of 4 kills per battle than any other enemy.

samr counts for allies, I'd rather cover for an ally who has proven to be useful, in previous games, than to cover an ally who didn't prove himself yet.
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TinManNL #132 Posted 05 September 2013 - 09:43 PM

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View Postzimmah87, on 05 September 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostTRNogger, on 04 September 2013 - 01:03 PM, said:

View Postzimmah87, on 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.
Becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy too fast, esspecially concerning your teammates. "Don't help XYZ, he has low stats". Guess how he will perform in this battle?
it may be a self-fulfilling profecy. But even than, I'd rather try to kill the one enemy with a 70% winrate and an average of 4 kills per battle than any other enemy.
samr counts for allies, I'd rather cover for an ally who has proven to be useful, in previous games, than to cover an ally who didn't prove himself yet.
Now here is where the real danger comes in, that 70% WR dude, is probably luring you into a position of being shot at if you try for him, so that's your doom again. ( I do that a lot, although my team usually don't take advantage of all those easy targets)
And as for judging allies, yeah I know where you are coming from, see my remark about people not taking advantage of easy targets, but everyone on your team is useful, even if it is for a distraction.
But judging guys on their stats is just plain wrong ingame... I tell you, my first day in this game I actually got compliments for my skill(True story), and that was when I didn't even had all the intricacies figured out.
So anybody can be a wolf in sheep's clothing.
XVM and the like leads to underestimation and overestimation of players, so I think it is something that should be banned outright, it will be used in this capacity and make people using it enter a negative spiral, because they don't understand statistics, or the implication of said statistics.

Edited by TinManNL, 05 September 2013 - 09:49 PM.



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zimmah87 #133 Posted 06 September 2013 - 02:53 PM

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Well true, you still have to look out not to be lured by the high skilled player. But tunnel-vision is never a good thing in this game.
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TinManNL #134 Posted 07 September 2013 - 01:35 PM

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Also, it could lead to good players on your own team not getting any help, because the are good, they don't need help.
Wrong! They have that high winrate amongst other things bacuse they know the value of teamplay, and are probably setting the guys on their tail up for easy shots, so you better help them out...


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DarkJIuSu4ka #135 Posted 24 September 2013 - 06:02 PM

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problem http://planes.noobme...JIuSu4ka/95468/

Произошли ошибки:
    Error: div.l-content not found for

:(

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MXDoener #136 Posted 24 September 2013 - 06:50 PM

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View PostDarkJIuSu4ka, on 24 September 2013 - 06:02 PM, said:

problem http://planes.noobme...JIuSu4ka/95468/

Произошли ошибки:
Error: div.l-content not found for

:(

You simply became too good and broke the statistic page... well done! :D

WG...fixing stuff that isn´t broken since 2011! :trollface:


KurtVonSteiger #137 Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:20 PM

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Only problem I have with any type of stats programme is that it can lead to ''noob rage''' , rage quitting and/ or poor game play - and yes, I DO use XVM in WoT but only to identify the most dangerous targets!

too many games in WoT are spoilt by people either going AFK or just not bothering to play based on the projected chance to win or dying then spending the rest of the game calling everyone else useless noobs and to be honest it's not something I want to see happening in WoWP.

If you are going to fight - then you fight! .....of course, if you are up against better players you probably will get your ass handed to you on a plate but sometimes you prevail and there is a great sense of satisfaction in getting a hard won victory.
Also, stat whores make life unpleasant by kill stealing and hanging back until most of their team are dead then they come out to seal club the badly damaged enemy and tell you all how great they are.

Used wisely stat programmes can be useful - but not for E peen waving - if I (or anyone else) chooses to play a particular plane because it is their favourite that's their choice but it will impact on their stats if it is not the currently OP plane in the tier.
So, by all means have stat programmes but please don't let them have an adverse effect on the game.


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DarkJIuSu4ka #138 Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:24 PM

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View PostMXDoener, on 24 September 2013 - 06:50 PM, said:

You simply became too good and broke the statistic page... well done! :D
okay :(

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richie_b #139 Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:05 PM

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View PostAnuSuaraj, on 04 September 2013 - 01:10 PM, said:

View PostTRNogger, on 04 September 2013 - 01:03 PM, said:

View Postzimmah87, on 04 September 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

XVM could maybe be useful to check which enemy to focus on first and which to safe for last, or which ally to cover and which ally to ignore.
Becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy too fast, esspecially concerning your teammates. "Don't help XYZ, he has low stats". Guess how he will perform in this battle?
Exactly. XVM is a perfect grade A example of a self fulfilling prophecy...
I'm fairly sure in WoT, the counter case is also true: 70% win rate means I don't even need to try. Super high win chance is won less often than quite high, IME. Although there are all sorts of micro-gradients in that too.
In my limited experience in WoWP & slightly more in WoT, I'm not sure that the XVM issues you've experienced in WoT would manifest in WoWP since individual skill is a far larger factor than it is in WoT. SerB pretty much confirmed this with his analysis of the WRs of WoWP open beta players (they have a far greater variance/standard deviation that in WoT).
I'm not all that good at either game, but I'd rather face players of relatively (to me) limited ability 2v1 in WoWP than in WoT: my chances of survival are simply better. I say that as an average player. I had a game against you in my first 500 games, which you won from a 5:1 down position (& you killed me, but there's not that much kudos in that). From all of that, I'm guessing that, for you, your chances would be far better still.
In WoWP, there is no auto-aim, aiming is harder, not playing to your strengths means you die, killing good players is far harder, attacking from 2 directions won't almost guarantee a kill.
Ultimately the problem lies in that if folk can't understand that <50% =/= 0% then they are probably not going to understand BnZ or hull down either (I still haven't found my hull down, high camo plane though :tongue: )
tl;dr
Individual skill is weighted far higher in WoWP than in WoT, so some of the above comparisons aren't valid...

(First post BTW *waves*)

Kopuliak #140 Posted 25 September 2013 - 06:08 AM

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View PostNoobMeter, on 10 August 2013 - 06:03 AM, said:


For now I'd like to start the discussion on development of some sort of performance rating for WoWP - I'm open to your ideas.


I checked planes stats, I think categories are uselessly fragmented, many of them with 1 plane at a tier.At least fighters and CB figters should be listed together, maybe even better with heavy fighters.It looks intricate now.




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